Early-warning watchlist · customer is currently up-to-date · model predicts a miss in 18d (91% probability).
very highKanya Cohen
PFNA-2025-0299 · Loan · 2022 Porsche 718 Cayman GT4 · US
Status
Current
0 DPD · up to date
Next due
15 May
$1,125.00
Outstanding
$67,500.00
Payoff $67,500.00
Last paid
On time
Loan since 2024
01
Pre-delinquency
Current, watching
02
Early-stage
1–30 DPD
03
Mid-stage
31–90 DPD
04
Late-stage
91+ DPD
05
Recovery
Post charge-off
06
Closure
Resolved
Why on the watchlist
Kanya is currently up-to-date on a loan for a 2022 Porsche 718, with 16 consecutive on-time payments. Last payment landed 21 days ago and the next instalment is due in 3 days. The predicted-miss model fired today — macro signal: Salary-deposit pattern slipped 4 days this month — predicted shortfall on next cycle. Probability of a missed payment in the next 18 days is 91% (very high confidence). This is a watchlist case — Kanya has not gone delinquent and no collections action is appropriate yet. Goal: subtle, helpful nudges that prevent a first miss.
Repayment trajectory
12 months back · 14 days forward
On-time 75% · 2 late · 0 missed · streak 4 mo
Past 12 months75% on time
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sept
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
Now
.
Next 14 days46% to early
Today
+14d
On timeLateMissedPredicted: Early · 46%
If we act now — predicted outcome
- No action46%
- Soft touch (SMS / email reminder)28%-18pp
- Full treatment (NBA + payment plan offer)12%-34pp
Top contributing factors
- DPD trajectory · 0d+0.18
- Asset value vs payoff (LTV)+0.14
- Channel responsiveness · soft+0.08
Predicted miss · very high confidence
91% likely to miss in 18 days
Salary-deposit pattern slipped 4 days this month — predicted shortfall on next cycle.
Ability to pay
19
/ 100
Willingness
57
/ 100
Top contributing signal
Macro
Streak so far: 16 on-time months · last paid 21d ago
Ability × Willingness
Self-cure · 69% / 86%
HardshipSelf-cureRecoveryEngagement
← low willingnesshigh →
ability →
Ability to pay
capacity
69%
Willingness to pay
propensity
86%
QuadrantSelf-cure
Self-cure cohort · light-touch AI nudge to portal, no human intervention required.