Early-warning watchlist · customer is currently up-to-date · model predicts a miss in 20d (90% probability).
very highAna Park
PFNA-2025-0388 · Loan · 2023 Porsche Panamera GTS · UK
Status
Current
0 DPD · up to date
Next due
15 May
£1,470.00
Outstanding
£88,200.00
Payoff £88,200.00
Last paid
On time
Loan since 2024
01
Pre-delinquency
Current, watching
02
Early-stage
1–30 DPD
03
Mid-stage
31–90 DPD
04
Late-stage
91+ DPD
05
Recovery
Post charge-off
06
Closure
Resolved
Why on the watchlist
Ana is currently up-to-date on a loan for a 2023 Porsche Panamera, with 18 consecutive on-time payments. Last payment landed 18 days ago and the next instalment is due in 13 days. The predicted-miss model fired today — cashflow signal: Two soft-credit pulls in last 14 days — multi-lender stress signal. Probability of a missed payment in the next 20 days is 90% (very high confidence). This is a watchlist case — Ana has not gone delinquent and no collections action is appropriate yet. Goal: subtle, helpful nudges that prevent a first miss.
Repayment trajectory
12 months back · 14 days forward
On-time 75% · 2 late · 0 missed · streak 7 mo
Past 12 months75% on time
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sept
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
Now
.
Next 14 days45% to early
Today
+14d
On timeLateMissedPredicted: Early · 45%
If we act now — predicted outcome
- No action45%
- Soft touch (SMS / email reminder)27%-18pp
- Full treatment (NBA + payment plan offer)11%-34pp
Top contributing factors
- DPD trajectory · 0d+0.18
- Asset value vs payoff (LTV)+0.14
- Channel responsiveness · soft+0.08
Predicted miss · very high confidence
90% likely to miss in 20 days
Two soft-credit pulls in last 14 days — multi-lender stress signal.
Ability to pay
10
/ 100
Willingness
50
/ 100
Top contributing signal
Cashflow
Streak so far: 18 on-time months · last paid 18d ago
Ability × Willingness
Self-cure · 57% / 63%
HardshipSelf-cureRecoveryEngagement
← low willingnesshigh →
ability →
Ability to pay
capacity
57%
Willingness to pay
propensity
63%
QuadrantSelf-cure
Self-cure cohort · light-touch AI nudge to portal, no human intervention required.