Early-warning watchlist · customer is currently up-to-date · model predicts a miss in 16d (93% probability).
very highApirak Hartmann
PFNA-2025-0701 · Lease · 2025 Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT · US
Status
Current
0 DPD · up to date
Next due
15 May
$2,375.00
Outstanding
$142,500.00
Payoff $142,500.00
Last paid
On time
Lease since 2024
01
Pre-delinquency
Current, watching
02
Early-stage
1–30 DPD
03
Mid-stage
31–90 DPD
04
Late-stage
91+ DPD
05
Recovery
Post charge-off
06
Closure
Resolved
Why on the watchlist
Apirak is currently up-to-date on a lease for a 2025 Porsche Cayenne, with 14 consecutive on-time payments. Last payment landed 24 days ago and the next instalment is due in 18 days. The predicted-miss model fired today — bureau signal: Customer engaged hardship explainer twice without applying — leading indicator. Probability of a missed payment in the next 16 days is 93% (very high confidence). This is a watchlist case — Apirak has not gone delinquent and no collections action is appropriate yet. Goal: subtle, helpful nudges that prevent a first miss.
Repayment trajectory
12 months back · 14 days forward
On-time 75% · 2 late · 0 missed · streak 6 mo
Past 12 months75% on time
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sept
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
Now
.
Next 14 days47% to early
Today
+14d
On timeLateMissedPredicted: Early · 47%
If we act now — predicted outcome
- No action47%
- Soft touch (SMS / email reminder)29%-18pp
- Full treatment (NBA + payment plan offer)13%-34pp
Top contributing factors
- DPD trajectory · 0d+0.18
- Asset value vs payoff (LTV)+0.14
- Channel responsiveness · soft+0.08
Predicted miss · very high confidence
93% likely to miss in 16 days
Customer engaged hardship explainer twice without applying — leading indicator.
Ability to pay
21
/ 100
Willingness
52
/ 100
Top contributing signal
Bureau
Streak so far: 14 on-time months · last paid 24d ago
Ability × Willingness
Self-cure · 57% / 86%
HardshipSelf-cureRecoveryEngagement
← low willingnesshigh →
ability →
Ability to pay
capacity
57%
Willingness to pay
propensity
86%
QuadrantSelf-cure
Self-cure cohort · light-touch AI nudge to portal, no human intervention required.