Lukas Ortega
PFNA-2025-0987 · Hire-purchase · 2023 Porsche 911 Carrera S · UK
Lukas is currently up-to-date on a hire-purchase for a 2023 Porsche 911, with 23 consecutive on-time payments. Last payment landed 3 days ago and the next instalment is due in 13 days. The predicted-miss model fired today — behavioural signal: Bureau utilisation jumped from 62% → 91% in 30 days. Probability of a missed payment in the next 23 days is 95% (very high confidence). This is a watchlist case — Lukas has not gone delinquent and no collections action is appropriate yet. Goal: subtle, helpful nudges that prevent a first miss.
12 months back · 14 days forward
On-time 83% · 1 late · 0 missed · streak 10 mo
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sept
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- No action48%
- Soft touch (SMS / email reminder)30%-18pp
- Full treatment (NBA + payment plan offer)14%-34pp
- DPD trajectory · 0d+0.18
- Asset value vs payoff (LTV)+0.14
- Channel responsiveness · soft+0.08
95% likely to miss in 23 days
Hardship · 50% / 73%
Hardship case · willing but constrained. Open hardship pathway, restructure or payment-holiday before harder action.